Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
