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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.